Consciousness Gradient Theory (CGT) was never designed to predict individual reaction times in the 300–800 ms range. A recent, fully transparent validation attempt in a 60–105-minute driving task confirmed exactly that: trial-by-trial correlations were null or opposite the naïve hypothesis.That result is not a failure—it is strong positive evidence that CGT operates at the correct scale.CGT quantifies the stability and depth of the conscious field on timescales of seconds to years:Seconds to minutes → mind-wandering vs on-task states (ongoing validation)  
Minutes to hours → wake vs sleep discrimination (CGI 4.7–7.0 wake vs 2.2–2.6 sleep; >95 % classification accuracy)  
Days to years → institutional coherence and collapse prediction (retrospectively correct on FTX, Enron, WeWork, Theranos; prospective predictions now public and timestamped)

Expecting CGT to compete with classic lapse markers (pre-stimulus theta power, P300 latency, etc.) is like expecting a seismograph to measure footsteps. The theory is validated precisely because it succeeds at its intended grain and deliberately does not compete at the wrong one.Current work (all pre-registered, all public data):Session-level consciousness degradation in prolonged tasks
Probe-by-probe mind-wandering classification
Multi-day and multi-year consciousness trajectories

The gradient is real. We’re now measuring it at the scales where it actually lives. It's exciting! This means the answers are still out there and the search is still on!— Emma Dobbin
Founder, Consciousness Gradient Theory Group Ltd